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As in the case of the first table, we again see some of the greatest baseball players. From BIS, Heyward had the highest range numbers in the business. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. While Fangraphs weighs his overall contribution at 4.7 WAR for 2013, his UZR/150 (23.9) and Defensive Runs Saved (41) paint a picture of a high-floor player. Its ever so early, but it seems like he could be working on that. by Retrosheet. Heyward managed to nab nine bases in 11 tries last year, and Bill James projects hell have 14 SB in 2012. Consequently, his walk rate has dropped from 14.6 percent to 11.1 percent. Greatest Careers Through Age 25 Since World War II, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 30, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 35, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps Through Age 25, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps Through Age 26, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted With such an advanced plate approach and gargantuan numbers in the minors (he slashed .323/.408/.555 while rising from High-A to Triple-A as a teenager in 2009), Heyward reached the show years before most hitters do. Dodgers outfielder Jason Heyward had glowing praise for manager Dave Roberts, whom he calls a "baseball rat" who loves being around the game. Support FanGraphs. He made his MLB debut that night against the Washington Nationals as a replacement for Jason Heyward, going hitless in 3 at-bats. Heyward does need to keep the ball of the grass and pare down the pop ups to truly tap into his power, but its important to remember that hes still younger than many celebrated rookies and prospects. Thats why I want to make sure you understand Im not really concluding anything. Teams should, and likely do, look at adding years to a contract as spreading out money over a longer time period rather than seeking an extra year of value. Here are their total numbers from age 26 through age 35, a total of ten seasons per player. Depending on ones point of view, it was an effort that was either an improvement in his development as a still-young hitter or a disturbing blight on his future value. Id imagine all those infield popups are at least partly due to his bum shoulder. He clobbered 27 homers when he was 22. 2023 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Jason Heyward graphs for Major League baseball. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. His work has appeared in numerous publications, and he has contributed to the 2014 and 2015 editions of The Hardball Times Annual. But a lot of the value Heyward accumulated last season he did in a fashion that might seem Troutian. The Fans: .279/.378/.468, 21 HR. All this before you look at his 11 home runs, easily a career low, less than the 14 he put up in two separate seasons when he averaged just 448 plate appearances. While the $330 million figure is likely the one that jumps out, I would direct your attention to the smallest number: $159 million. According to Statcast, Walker registered a sprint speed of 28.5 feet per second with 30 feet per second being considered elite-level speed usually reserved for middle infielders and cat-quick centerfielders. Dodgers' Jason Heyward on new environment that's more his speed. The chart below shows the varying WAR averages from above for Jason Heyward comps at age-26 through age-30, as well as 26-35. When Heyward is Ellsburys age, he will have just finished Year Six, or might have already opted out for another big contract. Hes still really young De Paula hit .350/.448/.522 with 13 doubles, five home runs, and two triples in 53 games in the Dominican Summer League in his professional debut, and the power was intriguing enough that FanGraphs wasn't alone on an island. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, In the *other* MVP debate, Miguel Cabrera represented, perhaps, a belief in the older-school stats, those three fetishized numbers that have been in the newspapers since the games inception. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Contract: 8 yr, $184M (2016-23) AAV: $23.0M. However, if we want some sort of hybrid, we can look at the declines of the offensive comps and the defensive comps and combine them. Perhaps its fitting, if random, that Heywards most recent highlights on MLB.com are all home-run-saving catches. Im not all that mad about it. Whether he finds a home with Cleveland certainly wont depend on whether Quinn can maintain his power output. With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Heyward, a .211-hitter in 2021 and 2022, made significant swing changes over the winter. Just how healthy is Heyward? How many hitters (much less 21-year-old hitters) could manage a league-average batting line in the majors while injured and watching so many balls put in play gravitate toward gloves? If we pretend we know nothing about Heywards defense, we can come up with a set of comps based solely on his hitting, even removing his value on the basepaths. Jacoby Ellsbury just finished Year Two of his contract. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, He has been a well above-average hitter in the majors at an age when most players are in a short-season league, A-Ball or college. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. So its difficult to shake the tinge of disappointment thats come to hang around Heyward in the past couple of years, not necessarily because hes done anything wrong he is, after all, just 25 years old and boasts a career .345 wOBA but because in him we see fantasy studliness, and cant help but feel let down each year when he falls short of making good on his immense potential. But consider this for a moment: despite those negatives, despite Heyward dealing with a lingering right shoulder injury and despite a 75 point drop in his batting average on balls in play (from .335 to .260), Heyward was still basically a league-average hitter in 2011. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Perhaps rightfully so. Cavan Biggio will play half his games in the outfield. Overall, the group still put up above average numbers offensively. Also keep in mind that ZiPS, Bill James and Oliver dont know that Heyward was taking cuts with a bad shoulder last year; they just see a young guy who struggled after a fantastic rookie year. It happens. But, when seen in the light of this years AL MVP debate, as well as the context of these four young outfielders, it is remarkable that Heyward has taken a similar path to Mike Trout, even with an athleticism that might be touch short of that demonstrated by the American League Rookie of the Year. Looking at the numbers from 26 to 30 in each group, it is. FanGraphs crowdsourcing puts Heywards predicted contract at eight years and $184 million while Dave Cameron predicted a return to the Cardinals on a nine-year, $195 million contract with an opt-out after four years, making the value of the contract in excess of $200 million. Heywards year wasnt in the same realm as Ott, Mantle or A-Rod, but he outdid Willie Mays, Hank Aaron (outside of the top 25 with a 103 OPS+) and Johnny Bench, among many others, and kept company with Junior Griffey. Using FanGraphs approximate current cost of a win at $8 million, the numbers are even bigger. Now, increasingly deprived of opportunities to pull pitches, Heyward in recent years has been going the other way more often, and 2014 saw more than 19% of his plate appearances end with him hitting the ball to the opposite field, a new career high, and a credible explanation for the plunge in distance and home runs. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. The No. ESPN, FanGraphs, MLB Pipeline . Contracts matter Miller is entering his first year of arbitration while Heyward is now a FA. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. 2022 Updated In-Season Projections Games, Puzzles, and Crossword. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, by Handedness, Whos Been (Un)luckyThe Starting Pitchers. by Retrosheet. Heyward might not be a burner, but he has posted average-ish Speed Scores so far and has rated as an above-average base runner overall. Yet, its difficult to project just how hell play during the rest of the season. Out of 11 players, only Jim Fregosis production would not have justified a $200 million contract. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. In 2022, Heyward will earn a base salary of $22,000,000, with a total salary of $24,500,000. The team is confident in Jason Heyward. Heyward was coming off a rookie season in which he popped 18 home runs and batted .277/.393/.456 at age 20, tying him with Ty Cobb for the Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Just a couple years ago, it was Jason Heyward and Giancarlo Stanton that were tearing up baseball, looking like an unprecedented pair of rookie talents ready to continue on into the stratosphere together. Especially because of the accidental report that floated this week about Canario already being back on the field doing baseball work (he's not; still way too early for . Keep looking at him, and also keep looking at his numbers, as the season begins and wears on. And Heywards 57 percent ground ball rate places him among lightweights like Alexi Casilla, Kosuke Fukudome and Elvis Andrus. He went second to home on a single. That is a major boost for lefty pull hitters like Soto (who hit 38.1 percent of his balls in play to the right field side last season, per Fangraphs). The 19-year old was a first round pick in 2007 and has wasted no time The 19-year old was a first round pick in 2007 and has wasted no time establishing himself as a premier outfielder His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. Interesting stuff, but isnt this potentially terrible news for Heyward given that the spring spray chart only shows a significant pull increase on ground balls rather than all contact and pulled ground balls have by far the lowest success rate of any balls in play? Dodgers Add Jason Heyward LA signs five-time Gold Glover to a minor league deal with an invite to major league camp via Bleacher Report Jason Heyward Cubs Moving On from Heyward Team. Using the players from the chart above, here is how those players played from age 26 through age 30, the first five years of a potential Jason Heyward contract. The shift movement had already produced some . Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Gallo got the upper hand on the Red Sox in his second inning at-bat, drawing a walk to nullify Boston's shift. While Heyward did fall into some bad habits at the plate last year and has some durability concerns, this is a perfect time to buy low on a youthful outfielder with superstar potential. With Taylor refocusing on the infield, Roberts suggested he would be less likely to fill the void at center field. Theres a pretty good distribution of balls around the field. If thats something hes really doing, its probably because hes trying to up his power output. Limiting Heyward comps solely to free agents leaves little by way of realistic comparison. Heyward was coming off a rookie season in which he popped 18 home runs and batted .277/.393/.456 at age 20, tying him with Ty Cobb for the 15th best OPS+ ever for a hitter who qualified for the batting title but couldnt legally buy a beer. Andrew Heaney is fine with throwing meatballs. It doesnt matter that Heyward has still been productive; he looks like he should be a beast of a hitter, so its odd to see him hit singles and doubles. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Free agent Jason Heyward agreed to a $184 million, eight-year contract with the Cubs, according to a person familiar with the negotiations. Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball. Im not going to worry about it.. The games, as you well know, havent mattered yet. This spring, Heyward has hit 18 flies and liners, and hes sent two of them toward left. ESPN rated the oufielder 11th in the system, Baseball America had him 12th, and The Athletic rated De Paula 18th. Here is how they performed over their next ten seasons. by Handedness. Career statistics and player information from MLB, or ESPN, or Baseball Reference, or Fangraphs, or . Massive crying face emoji. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Games. Others call it a slurve or even a whirlybird. The Yankees finished second in the majors and first in the American League in 2022 with 4.98 runs scored per game. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Players who rove around the outfield will qualify at the specific outfield position where he played the most innings provided it was a minimum of 75 percent (475 innings) of total innings at the specific position. Instead, Heyward will step into the box for his first post-All-Star at-bat with a .226/.315/.404 triple-slash. For an awfully consistent hitter, Jason Heyward is considered an awfully frustrating hitter. I was just saying the other day that there hasnt been a free agent whos so valuable in this particular waya combination of very good performance and youthsince A-Rod in 2000. Heres a powerful triple to center. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Sure, Bourn did not light the world on fire with his wRC+ of 117 and slash line of .274/.348/.391, but it was 17.0 percent better than league average. Crossword; Sudoku; Crossword; Sudoku _____ About Us Adding in 23 steals on 26 attempts and the rest of his baserunning, Heywards 22 runs above average on offense placed him within the top quarter of qualified hitters. And its easy to identify the problem: Observers wish that Heyward would hit for more power. So how did he end up with some of the best non-stolen-base baserunning numbers in the game? Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. We're asking for your help to make it. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. 2022 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. Dont look at me. Consider this an expansion on Matt Klaasens crowning of Jason Heyward as the King oF Little Things if you will. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. "I've talked . Heyward and David Peralta, a pair of veteran left-handed hitters, could see time against right-handed pitchers. Upton, Chris Johnson and Andrelton Simmons, and its worth noting that Justin Upton and Heyward too, for that matter will be a free agent after next year, leaving open the possibility that the Braves could move him if the team decides to rebuild. Heywards production, meanwhile, has been excellent from an early age, similar to multiple Hall of Famers. His expected BABIP (xBABIP), which is based on home runs, strikeouts, stolen bases, and batted ball data, was about .315. Gift a Membership. Heyward will get paid. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Taking the runs above average on offense from the offensive group and the runs above average from the defensive group, adding in the value of a replacement player by averaging the plate appearances from the two groups and then using ten runs per win, we can get an approximate value. Heyward remains a tempting upside guy on draft day, but its hard to bid on him too far beyond the price tag of a No. To isolate players similar to Heyward, I looked for players from 1960 to 2007 within five of Heywards 27.8 WAR and within 20% of his 3429 plate appearances. In particular, Heyward has a .188 BABIP on ground balls. Andrelton A. Simmons 198994 18888426 . Non-roster invitee Ronald Guzmn, who is in Giants camp as a two-way player, made his pitching debut in the ninth, surrendering a solo shot to P.J. But in the previous five years, he had bounced between eight different organizations, unable to find his footing in the majors before an opportunity arose with the Dodgers. Hes hit 24 homers the last two years combined. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. by Handedness, swung at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. But Trejo, who came to Spring Training to try to change some minds, had a change in latitude because Gold Glove second baseman Brendan Rodgers sustained a dislocated left shoulder in the previous game. Its where most hitters are strongest, and when Heyward had his powerful 2012, he hit just three of his homers the other way. Andy Pages emerging, however, could free Taylor up for the infield (we'll talk about him more in a bit). Perhaps the most aggravating trends for Heyward are his propensity to pop the ball up, producing gimme outs, and chop the ball into the ground, failing to make good use of his prodigious power and 6-foot-5, 240 pound frame. Heaney added that, in the regular season, he probably wouldnt have thrown that pitch in that situation. FanGraphs' Roster Resource has Adrian Sampson in the fifth spot in the rotation, but he has the ability to function as a long reliever/sixth starter if need be. Chicago Cubs. Jason Alias Heyward (born August 9, 1989), nicknamed " J-Hey " is an American professional baseball right fielder for the Los Angeles Dodgers organization. . As teams expect to get the best production at the beginning of the contract, they understand that a contract will likely underpay the player in the early years and potentially overpay him as he ages with the surplus from the beginning ideally canceling out the loss at the end. Prior to the . Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors The Chicago Cubs outfielder hit a third of batted balls in play in the air in 2016, but saw his slugging percentage dip to a career-low (.325) due to his exit velocity . . I cant wait to see how this turns out. He started 13 games there in 2021 and six last season, but John Schneider is expecting more of a 50-50 split for Biggio between the infield and outfield this season, adding that hell play a ton of outfield. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Heywards small sample of air balls also supports this. Dodgers 'believe' in Jason Heyward; can swing change revive his career? All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, It was a true comfort level, not rattled at all. The Dodgers announced Thursday that they've signed free-agent outfielder Jason Heyward to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training. It took the Dodgers six games into their Cactus League schedule, but they finally achieved the ultimate spring . FanGraphs Membership. Players are always free to change their minds about anything. Eno, how do you have the nerve to put up a Jason Heyward article before an article about Chone Figgins release? For the first method, we assume the only information we know is age, WAR, and total number of plate appearances. Only Garrett Jones (three of 108) had a smaller percentage of GDPs with a minimum of 100 opportunities. Despite three home runs in his first five spring at-bats, thats not really part of his game. On Friday, the Cubs won the bidding for Jason Heyward, convincing the outfielder to come to Chicago despite offers for more guaranteed money from the Nationals, the Cardinals, and reportedly. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. by Retrosheet. That level of production would justify a $200 million contract based on the first five years alone. Heywards infield hit rate is three percent, which is in the same range as David Ortiz, Vladimir Guerrero and Billy Butler, guys whose times to first base are measured with sun dials instead of stop watches. He clearly can the man stands 65. The team is heavy on left-handed hitting outfielders, with David Peralta locked in along with Jason Heyward fighting for a spot and top prospect James Outman on the cusp. For comparisons sake, the average age for hitters in the Low-A South Atlantic League (which Heyward aced at 18) was 21.4 in 2011. Hitters think about driving the ball in the air up the middle or to the pull side, and then when the contact isnt just right, a grounder gets yanked. Over 55 combined seasons, the group averaged five wins per season. Quite obviously, Im lukewarm on Heyward, and his upside might merit a few dollars more, but Id need to see him take a step forward before I start paying for him as a frontline fantasy cornerstone. Forget about everything else. Rojas, a 34-year-old, glove-first veteran, was acquired in the winter to aid the groups depth. Earlier this week, August Fagerstrom took a look at recent seasons authored first of Mike Trout and then of Clayton Kershaw and compared them to the greatest peaks of all time. Very obviously, he can sting a ball when he gets extended. Time now for our annual spin through players whose luck in 2022 was worse (or better) than their fortune deserved. Indiana State vs Bradley MVC Tournament odds, tips and betting trends. Well know whats up by the beginning of May. It really had good numbers on the computer. Lets focus on Heyward and power for a minute, then. At the very least, we should expect Heywards average over the rest of the season to climb considerably. Follow/harass him on Twitter @Karl_de_Vries. What follows is going to lean upon some spring-training data. Heyward went first to third on a single 15 of 32 times according to BIS, and thats not quite Trout-level (62%), but it was 15th-best of 180 qualified players. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Yeah, if continued this would make him shiftable. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire. With better luck, health and a little more development, Heyward could be a monster in 2012. If you can sign him without an opt-out, you might be in the rare position of having an 8- or 10-year megadeal where the player is worth his salary every year. Dropping down Heywards offense by 20 runs still yields no other results. He went second to home on a single 82% of the time, which was 16th-best among 131 players. The pre-season #1 prospect, whose legend grew with each car he dented while going deep in spring training, batted .277/.393/.456. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. by Retrosheet. Second, if Heywards defense declines he ages, he is not likely to be of much value. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Taylor may also appear at third base in Cactus League games. From 2010-2015, his 25 WAR was one of the top 20 marks in the game and in his final two seasons before free agency, his 10. Last season was a huge disappointment for the Los Angeles Dodgers, as they were dropped in the NLDS by the rival San Diego Padres. Weve seen Heyward hit the ball out to right, and weve seen him hit the ball out to left. The last qualifier hurt more than helped Heyward, as Barry Bonds and Adrian Beltre were removed from the list. Kiner-Falefa had a slash line of .261/.314/.327 . According to FanGraphs, the 26-year-old was worth 6.0 fWAR (FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement) in '15the sixth most WAR among outfielders. That should tell you all you need to know about the Blue Jays plans for their fourth outfield spot, and this assignment is something he plans to grab with both hands. Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as "more than adequate" in the field at center. Heyward is actually the most accomplished offensive player in the group due to being worth more than 20 runs above average on the bases, but strictly as a hitter, these are the players with similar profiles. Unfortunately, for studying purposes anyway, there simply are not enough of those types of players to look at. Even with a bum shoulder, Heyward has managed to draw a decent amount of walks and hit for some power. That has something to do with the Angels deciding to play Trout in the corner outfield from time to time, but it also has a lot to do with Heyward having great range for a corner outfielder. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Prediction: Road to the MLB 2023 Season. But the power was largely absent. To bring this all back: There are very early signs that Jason Heyward is focusing more on the pull half of the field. I think thats in the ballpark. The former Yankees and Rangers first baseman topped out at 97 mph from the left side and struck out the first batter he faced swinging on an offspeed pitch. Heyward did it all offensively as a rookie: he showed superb plate discipline (a 14.6% walk rate), hit for power (a .179 Isolated Power) and didnt punch out at an exorbitant rate (20.5 K%). I dont want to start my first game of Spring Training going 3-0 on a guy or nibbling. Can you imagine what he would have batted if he had been in the Carolina League or the Pac-12 over the past couple of years? Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. News; Wikipedia: . Those are just selective links, but they show Heyward with a right-center approach, and a good amount of batted-ball authority. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Dec 11 2015 Signed an 8 year $184 million contract with Chicago (CHC) Nov 15 2015 Player declined $15.8 million qualiying offer. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. The headline raises the red flag right off the bat Im probably making too much of too little. 2023 Updated In-Season Projections The chart below shows the varying WAR averages from above for Jason Heyward comps at age-26 through age-30, as well as 26-35. He swung at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (28.3%, compared to 23.3% in 2010), which led to a dip in his walk rate (11.2 BB%). These comparable players here are not quite as accomplished as those from the WAR group above, which is to be expected given defense is not taken into account. He was 97-98 [mph], but I dont think that was the most interesting part of the outing. He homered off former Dodger Andrew Heaney in Wednesdays second inning. . You could make a strong argument that it was the most impressive performance for a batter under age 21 since The Kid took Seattle by storm back in 1990. Its hard not to fall in love with the fantasy potential of Jason Heyward, especially for those of us who cant forget the cant-miss hype surrounding his debut and a rookie season that seemed like the precursor to imminent superstardom. Just ask Jason Heyward. My favorite minor story line this season is that the Cubs are paying about $40 million to replace Heyward with Bellinger, and the Dodgers are paying about $0 to replace Bellinger with Heyward. Ground balls are a function of the swings, and consider Xander Bogaerts. Nov 6 2015 Extended a $15.8 million qualiying offer by St. Louis (STL) Nov 17 2014 Traded to St. Louis (STL) from Atlanta (ATL) with Jordan Walden for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins. Up for debate is precisely how good Jason Heyward has been during his career, and more importantly for whichever teams signs him this winter, how good Heyward will be moving forward. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010.